Focus on German industrial production and geopolitics

Monday, 7and February

German Industrial Production (MoM) (December)

wednesday 9and February

German Trade Balance (Dec)

thursday 10and February

EU economic forecasts

The Majors

It was a particularly bearish weekend for European majors on Friday. The CAC40 fell 0.77%, with the DAX and EuroStoxx600 slipping 1.75% and 1.38% respectively.

A hawkish ECB President Lagarde on Thursday and corporate earnings eclipsed upbeat economic data from Germany and the United States on Friday.

Adding to the weekend’s decline was market nervousness over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. By the end of the week, news had hit the wires of the United States sending troops to the region, increasing tensions between Russia and the United States.

Statistics

It was a relatively busy morning on the Eurozone economic calendar this morning. Key statistics included German factory orders and eurozone retail sales figures for December.

German factory orders

In December, German factory orders rose 2.8% against an expected increase of 0.5%. Factory orders jumped 3.6% in November.

According to Destatis,

  • Domestic orders jumped 11.7%, month-over-month, while foreign orders fell 3.0%.

  • New orders from the euro area fell by 4.2%, while new orders from other countries fell by 2.3%.

  • Producers of intermediate goods recorded a 4.1% increase in new orders, while producers of capital goods recorded a 1.8% increase.

  • However, consumer goods orders led the way, jumping 5.3%.

  • Compared to December 2020, orders increased by 5.5%.

Eurozone retail sales

In December, retail sales fell 3.0% in the eurozone, reversing a 1.0% increase from November. Economists had forecast a more modest decline of 0.5%.

According to Eurostat,

  • Sales of non-food products fell 5.2%, while sales of food, beverages and tobacco fell 0.3%.

  • Motor fuel sales rose a modest 0.1%.

  • The Member States with the largest declines in retail trade volume were the Netherlands (-9.2%), Spain (-5.7%) and Germany (-5.5%) .

  • In contrast, Latvia (+7.2%) and Slovenia (+2.1%) recorded the strongest increases in retail sales in December.

The United States

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 467,000 in January, after an upwardly revised jump of 510,000 in December. Despite this increase, the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 3.9% to 4.0% due to an increase in the participation rate from 61.9% to 62.2%.

market movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish day for the automotive sector on Friday. BMW fell by 4.37%, with Continental and volkswagen posting losses of 3.69% and 3.08% respectively. Daimler fell a more modest 2.67% on the day.

It was a bullish day for banks, however. German Bank and Commerzbank ended the day up 2.40% and 2.17% respectively.

From the CACit was a mixed day for banks. Agricultural credit and Gen. Soc. decreased by 1.19% and 0.64% respectively, while BNP Paribas increased by 1.04%.

The French automotive sector had a particularly bearish session. Stellantis SA fell 5.25%, with Renault sliding 3.98%.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE recorded losses of 1.28% and 1.18% respectively on the day.

On the VIX index

A two-day winning streak came to an end for the VIX Friday.

Partially reversing a 10.23% rise on Thursday, the VIX fell 4.64% to end the day at 23.22.

The Dow Jones fell 0.06%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ posted gains of 0.52% and 1.58% respectively.

The day to come

It’s a calm day ahead in the euro zone economic calendar. German Industrial Production figures for December are expected in the European Open. Following a series of optimistic data from Germany, the markets will be looking for a recovery in industrial production at the end of the year.

In the United States, there are no material stats to provide direction for the majors later in the day. Before the European opening, Chinese private sector PMIs will set the tone.

Outside of the economic calendar, updates on Russia and Ukraine will have to be watched.

Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down 36 points, while the DAX was up 53 points.

For an overview of all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally published on FX Empire

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James R. Rhodes